So Long (Dear Leader) And Thanks For All the Fish

North Korea's Taehung Mine.

“What is he thinking, standing there in his pear-shaped polyester pantsuit, pointy-toed elevator shoes, oversize sunglasses of malevolent tint, an arrogant curl to his feminine lip and a perpetual bad-hair day?”

He’s thinking: “Get me out of here!” Bruce Cumings concluded in his classic work on North Korea. And out of there Kim Jong-il he has now got; flying his totalitarian coop in one of the few ways you can: by dying abruptly.

The Dear Leader’s passing triggered paroxysms of grief in Pyongyang, but as the bouquets of Kimjongilia piled high and reporters rattled out stories on the countless lunacies of the strangest state on earth, adventurous investors will have been watching closely.

North Korea is best known for its sprawling gulags, sporadic missile tests, rococo rhetoric and goose-stepping gunmen. Less well known is that it is home to one of the world’s biggest gold mines and has mineral reserves estimated by experts in the South Korean capital to be worth over $5,000bn.

Largely seen as a closed shop, the country has in fact participated with China, Egypt, South Korea and several other countries in joint cement, coal, copper, gold, graphite, iron ore, lead and zinc,magnesite, and molybdenum production facility ventures, with minerals and mining products making up more than half of its total exports.

So amid the hand-wringing – by pundits alarmed at the Swiss-educated cipher that is Kim Jong-un taking the reins of a “rogue state” in his pudgy hands and grief-stricken North Koreans no doubt wondering how much worse things can get – investors, from neighbouring nations to British hedge funds, will be watching closely.

Shortly before Kim Jong-il’s death, London-based Toscafund chief economist Savvas Savouri flagged up the attractiveness of Pyongyang as an investment opportunity. In a research note for investors he claimed: “North Korea’s status quo is not sustainable. It is inevitable it will be broken… A Beijing-inspired Palace coup in North Korea is a near certainty.

“If regime-change is initiated by China using elements within the North Korean leadership, change can be achieved relatively swiftly and without the threat of some nuclear or other WMD (weapons of mass destruction) reaction.”

Quite what sort of regime-change Kim the Third — surrounded by his octogenarian advisors – represents emains deeply unclear. What is clear is that increasing numbers of Chinese firms are investing in North Korea, gaining preferable trading terms, taking over port operations and developing mineral resources.*

But former head of the International Crisis Group’s East Asia office, Peter Beck, says he sees little hope of any pending glasnost. “Elites will be too focused on completing the succession process to be able to respond to any new investment initiatives.”

But writing earlier in Foreign Policy, he said: “Beijing has stepped up efforts to make North Korea — in the words of the South Korean media — the “fourth northeast province” to meet China’s insatiable demand for natural resources… And even at the official level, the regime readily acknowledges the necessity of change.

“Since the younger Kim’s debut, half of his public appearances (always with his father) have been economic-related, ranging from newly automated factories (Kim Jong-Un has long been touted as an expert in a 1970s technology called “computer numeric control”) to power plants under construction.

“The government’s mouthpiece, the Worker’s Newspaper, refers frequently to the need for “reform,” “technology,” and “expanding the production of consumer goods.” One frequently seen billboard shows a mother and child standing in front of a department store and declares, “We have reached a turning point.”

But with the most obsolescent of infrastructure, roads of which only 10% are estimated to be paved and challenges which Swiss firm Quintermina AG, which set about marketing dead-burned North Korean magnesia to European customers in 2009, described as “a lack of fuel and power supplies, inadequate transportation, and a lack of modern technology” it is clear that the cash-strapped compatriots of Pyongyang have some way to go before the most forlorn of command economies becomes a hive of exporting activity.

"So long and thanks for all the fish..."

The Dear Leader had one last message for his people before he died though and it was a simple one: So long, and thanks for all the fish. As the regime’s mouthpiece the KCNA reported, grief is best met by a slap round the face with a wet kipper. Via NK Economy Watch:

Surreal does it no justice.

Pyongyang, December 23 (KCNA) — Fresh fish associated with leader Kim Jong Il’s deep concern began to be supplied to the Pyongyang citizens seized with grief at his demise.
Great Comrade Kim Jong Un took a special measure to transport fresh fish to Pyongyang in time and supply them to the citizens.

Both salespersons and inhabitants were deeply moved by Kim Jong Il’s deep care for the citizens. Ku Ok Sun, a 62-year-old woman, told KCNA: “I did not know that leader Kim Jong Il had paid deep concern to the fish supply to the Pyongyang citizens until his last days when he was staying in train. This fish makes me sorely miss him. I will get over the grief at his demise and do something to relieve respected Comrade Kim Jong Un of his heavy burdens.”

A saleswoman, Kim Ran Hui (32), said, “I am deeply moved by leader Kim Jong Il’s deep concern for the fish supply to Pyongyang citizens.” An inhabitant, Kim Suk Yong (32), said: “When receiving these pollacks and herrings, I was sorely missing leader Kim Jong Il. I feel my heart rent because he passed away during his uninterrupted field guidance tour for the happiness of our people. I will not give way simply to sorrow. I will never forget his deep care for our people. I will try to contribute to the building of a thriving nation, remaining faithful to respected Comrade Kim Jong Un.”

True story.

* A November report by Seoul’s Yonhap News Agency showed that North Korea’s mineral exports to China tripled year-on-year in 2011. The joint study of Chinese data by Yonhap News Agency and IBK Economic Research Institute showed that China imported 8.42 million tons of minerals from North Korea from January to September 2011.

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